Hey folks. Sorry to keep you all at bay these past couple of weeks. IceBat was…sick.
Another final report I wrote was based on MLB Free Agent contracts, and how or if we can model their outcomes based on prior years’ performance. The contract terms I used as response variables were contract length (in years) and average salary per season. I also focused on hitters and how metrics like Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, Home Runs, or even advanced ones like Wins Above Replacement (WAR) can help us see what the market is favoring and at what price. The reason to use different sources of metrics is to see what MLB Executives are listening to: traditional statistics or those advanced ones used by the Sabermetric community? Using models like this can also have some predictive powers.
Overall, I found there was a good mixture of metrics involved when fitting a best model to average salary and number of years. Average Salary was mostly related to Age of the Ballplayer, WAR, Batting Average, Slugging and Homeruns. Contract length was associated most with Age and WAR.
The final model I concluded with is a bit technical, but here are some interesting facts I found about FAs who signed after my project was completed, or haven’t yet this winter of 2010.
-According to the model, Carl Crawford should have received a $14.62 million average salary for 5 years. Instead he received a contract worth $20.3 million per year for 7 years from the “Boo”Sox.
-Adrian Beltre, who will likely receive way too many years in the real world, should get $17.9 million per year for 5 years if it were up to my model.
We see that the model underpaid Crawford, but in all likely events, Beltre will not receive that high of a salary. Some poor team may outreach and give him 5 years, however (I just really hope it’s not the A’s). Like all other linear models, we’re bound to get variation between predictions and the observations. But in general, the model was very good with lower end players: the ones that sign 2 or 3 year contracts worth less than $20 million. The true outliers, are the ones the media tends to only cover: the Cliff Lees or Derek Jeters. Don’t even get me started about how huge of an outlier Jeter was…it’s pretty sad. Although I will admit he has more than just baseball value to those Yanks.
Anyway, if you want to read the full report, feel free to do so. The link is below.
PS – IceBat is fine! I was just overworking him with final everythings and holiday everythings.